Global Risks 2026: An Era Defined by Uncertainty and Competition

As of 2026, uncertainty has become the defining feature of the global risk landscape. Risks are no longer isolated or slow-moving; they are expanding in scale, interacting across systems and accelerating in impact. At the same time, the foundations of international cooperation are weakening. Governments are increasingly withdrawing from multilateral frameworks, eroding the trust, transparency and rule-based order that have long underpinned global stability. In this shifting environment, competition is replacing collaboration and the mechanisms that once helped manage shared challenges are under mounting pressure. 

While short-term risk perceptions are dominated by conflict and economic downturn related threats, a longer-term perspective reveals a different hierarchy of concern. Over the 10-year horizon, the top global risks are driven primarily by the environmental consequences of the climate crisis. The current global focus on economic instability and geopolitical confrontation risks diverting attention and resources away from climate action, potentially resulting in a loss of momentum in addressing environmental risks both in the near and the distant future. 

Geoeconomic and Geopolitical Tensions 

In the Global Risks Report 2026, Geoeconomic confrontation is identified as the risk most likely to trigger a major global disruption in 2026. It ranks as the top risk over the 2-year horizon and shows the sharpest increase compared to previous years, reflecting growing anxiety over the weaponization of economic interdependence. This reflects a shift in how short-term global risks are generated: economic stress is increasingly driven by strategic and political decisions rather than purely market dynamics. Trade fragmentation, sanctions, industrial policy and supply chain controls are no longer external shocks to the economy but central channels through which geopolitical tensions translate into economic pressure.

Within this environment, State-based armed conflict also remains among the highest-ranked short-term risks, with its economic consequences ranging from supply chain disruption and commodity price volatility to fiscal strain and regional spillover effects. In this setting, risks such as economic downturns, inflation and asset bubble corrections gain prominence not as isolated macroeconomic cycles, but as outcomes of a more contested and fragmented global system. The result is a global economic environment that is more vulnerable to abrupt disruptions, with shocks spreading faster and less predictably across borders and sectors.

Technological Acceleration and Digital Risks 

Rapid technological change continues to generate significant opportunities, with transformative potential in areas such as healthcare, education, agriculture and infrastructure. However, these advances are also introducing new and complex risks. Misinformation and disinformation, alongside Cyber insecurity, are among the most pressing concerns in the short term.

Looking further ahead, Adverse outcomes of AI technologies rank among the top long-term risks. This reflects the fact that artificial intelligence remains at a relatively early stage of development, with its most profound societal, economic and security impacts yet to fully materialize. While current applications are still unfolding, the pace of technological progress suggests that over a 10-year horizon, AI-driven disruption could extend across multiple systems simultaneously. As AI reshapes labor markets, information ecosystems and security infrastructures, the scale and interconnectedness of these transformations increase the risk of changes that spread across multiple systems and become hard to correct once they take hold. For this reason, although adverse outcomes of AI are primarily perceived as a long-term risk, effective governance and mitigation efforts in the short term remain critical, given the potential implications for labor markets, information integrity and the use of autonomous systems in security contexts.

Climate related Environmental Risks

Environmental risks have lost relative prominence in the short-term (two-year) outlook, largely due to the immediate pressures of geopolitical confrontation, economic instability and security concerns. As governments and markets focus on short-term resilience, energy security and economic survival, attention to environmental risks has temporarily receded in priority rankings. 

However, this decline reflects a shift in focus rather than a reduction in underlying risk. Over the long-term (ten-year) horizon, environmental risks continue to dominate the global risk landscape. These include Extreme weather events, Biodiversity loss ecosystem collapse, Critical changes to Earth systems, Natural resource shortages, and Pollution, all of which remain among the highest-ranked risks over the 10-year outlook. The persistence of these risks at the top of the long-term rankings highlights their structural nature. Unlike economic or political risks, the impacts of environmental risks accumulate over time. In the first instance, this accumulation translates into rising adaptation and mitigation costs, which in turn accelerate inequality among states based on their available resources and response capacity. As climate crisis is a global challenge, its effects are unevenly distributed, reinforcing disparities between those able to absorb and manage these costs and those that are not. Food and water insecurity, increased displacement and heightened geopolitical tensions emerge as downstream consequences of this dynamic. Short-term neglect driven by immediate crises risks deepening long-term environmental damage and locking in higher future costs.

Social Polarization and Institutional Strain 

Rising social and political polarization is placing increasing strain on democratic institutions and public trust. Deepening divisions are fueling narratives that pit citizens against perceived elites, reinforcing skepticism toward traditional governance structures. Many individuals feel excluded from decision-making processes and unconvinced that public policy can meaningfully improve their economic and social conditions. Societal polarization ranks among the most prominent short-term risks, reflecting the immediacy with which these divisions are translating into political fragmentation and social tension. Inequality remains a central and deeply interconnected risk, amplifying other challenges such as economic instability, political fragmentation and social unrest.

As inequality widens, the gradual erosion of the middle class becomes a critical fault line in both economic and social systems. A shrinking middle class weakens aggregate demand, reduces social mobility and undermines the stabilizing role that broad-based prosperity has historically played in democratic societies. Economically, this dynamic can entrench low-growth environments and heighten vulnerability to shocks. Socially and politically, it deepens feelings of insecurity and loss of status, creating fertile ground for populist narratives, institutional distrust and polarized political behavior. Over time, the hollowing out of the middle class risks transforming inequality from a distributive challenge into a structural threat to social cohesion and democratic governance.

Overall Synthesis 

Taken together, the global risks outlook for 2026 depicts a world marked by fragmentation, declining trust and heightened competition across economic, political, technological and social domains. In the short term, the risk landscape is shaped by a combination of Geoeconomic confrontation, State-based armed conflict, Misinformation and disinformation, Societal polarization, and Extreme weather events, reflecting the simultaneous pressure of geopolitical rivalry, information disorder, social fragmentation and acute climate-related shocks. These risks reinforce one another, straining institutional capacity and narrowing the focus of policy responses toward immediate crises. 

Looking further ahead, the risk profile shifts markedly. Over the 10-year horizon, environmental risks driven by the climate crisis dominate the global outlook, underscoring their systemic and cumulative nature. At the same time, Misinformation and disinformation remains a top-tier long-term risk, ranking fourth, while Adverse outcomes of AI technologies rise to fifth place, signaling growing concern over the societal, economic and security implications of rapid technological change. The sustained focus on short-term confrontation- and economy-related risks risks amplifying the severity and cost of future environmental impacts, as delayed action increases exposure to climate-related disruptions. In parallel, the growing prominence of AI-related risks highlights the urgency of adopting preventive and forward-looking technology policies, particularly around the governance and regulation of artificial intelligence.